The George Town Landfill reaches capacity in approximately five years — one action preserves all options and locks in a Circular Royalty that begins 13 months after first delivery.
The Cayman Islands deposited approximately 130,000 tons of manufacturing feedstock into the George Town Landfill in 2024 — and the facility has roughly five years of usable capacity remaining at current intake rates. Two successive government ministers have confirmed this timeline before Parliament. The planned replacement facility — the ReGen project with the Dart consortium — was terminated in July 2024 after seven years of negotiation and a $17.7 million termination payout. No alternative procurement is active.
The Decision
Today, every ton of manufacturing feedstock delivered to the George Town Landfill costs the Government of the Cayman Islands approximately $160 — and returns zero. That figure is the only publicly available disposal cost benchmark, derived from the $163/ton contracted rate in the terminated ReGen agreement. The cost trajectory has three upward mechanisms: landfill capacity exhaustion will create emergency siting pressure; off-island export becomes the mandatory fallback at capacity at an estimated $150–250/ton; and the aging medical waste incinerator identified for replacement in the DEH 10-year plan adds an unfunded capital liability.
Carbotura offers a 30-year Build-Own-Operate agreement at a TMC Fee of $100/ton — $60/ton below the current FWDC planning basis. Carbotura funds 100% of construction. The Government of the Cayman Islands pays the TMC Fee per ton delivered and receives zero Circular Royalty for the first 13 months. Beginning at Month 13, a rolling Circular Royalty of $120/ton — 120% of the Year 1 TMC Fee — starts flowing back to GOCI and escalates at one percentage point per year. At steady state, the Circular Royalty is designed to exceed the TMC Fee on a per-ton basis. The net fiscal position at Year 30 is +$90.84/ton.
Phase Initial (200 TPD) is designed to reach commercial operations by Q3 2028 — three years before the landfill's hard capacity limit. This phase requires only one counterparty: the Government of the Cayman Islands via the Department of Environmental Health. No third-party contracts with the Water Authority — Cayman, the Port Authority, or any resort operator are required at Phase Initial. The decision window for a Feasibility Study that keeps this schedule intact closes in Q1 2027.
Fiscal Position — Three Required Periods
Year 1 — Pre-Royalty
Q3 2028 – Q4 2029 (est.)
−$100/ton
GOCI pays TMC Fee. Circular Royalty: $0. This is the only net-negative period in the 30-year COA term.
Month 13+ — Royalty Ramp
Q4 2029 onward (est.)
+$17.50/ton
Royalty of $120/ton begins against $102.50/ton TMC. Net position turns positive. Rolling monthly — not an annual event.
Year 2+ Steady State
Growing annually to Year 30
+$90.84/ton
Royalty escalation outpaces TMC escalation every year. Year 30 royalty: $295/ton vs. $205/ton TMC.
Gross cost displacement is quantified separately from Circular Royalty cash flow. Full net fiscal position reflects both.
Circular Royalty payments begin 13 months after corresponding TMC Fee payments and ramp to full run-rate on a rolling basis. This is not an annual switch-on event — each TMC Fee payment generates a corresponding Circular Royalty payment 13 months later.
At steady state, the Circular Royalty is designed to exceed the TMC Fee on a per-ton basis.
TMC Fee vs. Circular Royalty — Phase Initial · Years 1–10
Pre-royalty gap visible in Year 1. Royalty overtakes TMC by Year 2 and grows every year thereafter.
Phase Initial (200 TPD / 73,000 TPY) · $100/ton TMC base · 120% royalty base, +1pp/year escalator · Locked formula · All ESTIMATED
The specific irreversibility instrument is the George Town Landfill capacity deadline — a physical constraint confirmed before Parliament that cannot be extended by any policy decision taken after the fact. If T0 slips past Q1 2027, Phase Initial COD moves to 2030 or later, compressing or eliminating the operational buffer before the ~2031 hard capacity limit — at which point the only available option is expensive off-island export at an estimated $150–250/ton, or emergency procurement of a replacement facility with no active candidates in market.
Every quarter of postponement past Q1 2027 costs approximately $3.65M in foregone Year 2 Circular Royalty (Phase Initial) that would otherwise have been flowing to GOCI by Q4 2029. That royalty does not accumulate — it is permanently foregone for each month the start date slips.
One Next Action
Authorize the Community Feasibility Study
The Feasibility Study is the critical-path decision. It is not a commitment to construction — it is the action that preserves all optionality. It takes approximately three months and resolves every material uncertainty in this engagement.
Verifies the FWDC through government budget and disposal contract review
Confirms Priority 1 site availability and acreage (Industrial Park / Landfill Precinct)
Quantifies WAC biosolids, PACI marine feedstock, and Exogenesis legacy volumes
Establishes the verified T0 and confirms the Phase Initial COD schedule
Scopes the Exogenesis Protocol agreement and Regenesis Node programme structure
Key data sources: Cayman Compass (November 2025, June 2025, April 2021) · DEH — gov.ky/web/deh (February 2026) · Minister Ebanks-Wilks, Finance Committee, November 2025 · Minister Turner, Parliament 2025 · Port Authority of the Cayman Islands — caymanport.com · Cayman Resident — caymanresident.com · GOCI National Solid Waste Management Strategy (2016 baseline) · Financial projections: Carbotura Circular Advantage modeling — standard contractual parameters. All financial figures ESTIMATED unless marked VERIFIED. Subject to Community Feasibility Study verification. · Contact: info[at]carbotura.com
This document is a planning-basis summary prepared for authorized recipients only. All financial projections are forward-looking estimates subject to material change pending Feasibility Study verification. No figure in this Brief should be used as the basis for a financial commitment without independent verification. Carbotura, Inc. makes no warranty as to the accuracy of ESTIMATED figures. VERIFIED figures are sourced from publicly available government statements and documents as cited above.