What this document is
The State A / State B economic model for the Cayman Islands: what GOCI pays under the current system and under the CSA, and what it receives — shown as separate flows.
- State A is disposal at ~$160/ton against a landfill that reaches capacity ~2031, with the ReGen alternative terminated.
- State B: $7.30M Year-1 Beneficiation Fee at Phase Initial; a Circular Royalty™ of $8.76M in Year 2 growing to ~$437M gross over 30 years.
- Two independent gross transactions, reported separately; zero GOCI capital.
Cayman Islands
Economic Impact Report
State A locks GOCI into $160/ton disposal against a 2031 deadline — State B converts the same volume into a 30-year royalty return.
Introduction and Decision Summary
Introduction and Decision Summary
§1.1 — What This Report Measures
This report quantifies the fiscal, environmental, and structural difference between two states:
~130,000 TPY of manufacturing feedstock routed to the George Town Landfill (DEH). Facility approaching capacity ~2031. No contracted replacement. Cost: $160/ton ESTIMATED. Return to GOCI: $0.
30-year BOO. Beneficiation Fee: $100/ton. Circular Royalty™ from Month 13: $120/ton rising to $295/ton by Year 30.
State A values sourced from Waste Study. State B values from Proposal EIR Input Block. Neither state is re-diagnosed in this report.
§1.2 — Decision Summary Table
| Item | State A | State B — Year 1 | State B — Year 2+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual cost / obligation (Phase Initial) | $11.68M/year ESTIMATED | $7.30M TMC (no royalty) | $7.48M TMC / $8.76M royalty received |
| GOCI capital obligation | ~$60–100M+ new facility (uncontracted) | $0 — Carbotura BOO-funded | |
| Circular Royalty™ | $0 — no return mechanism | $0 (pre-royalty period) | $8.76M/year (Year 2), rising annually |
| Landfill capacity deadline | ~2031 (hard — VERIFIED) | Phase Initial COD Q3 2028 — 3 years ahead of deadline | |
| Decision deadline | Q1 2027 (LOI/MOU execution) | Q1 2027 to maintain Phase Initial schedule | |
| Cost of one year's delay | 13 additional months at $160/ton disposal cost | ~$8.76M+ in foregone Year 2 Circular Royalty™ per year of postponement | |
| Classification (RPT) | ACM permitted only under NAICS 325180 / 325998 / 327992 / 331110 / 331314 / 331492 (manufacturing). Solid waste codes (562213 / 562219) are expressly excluded. Both parties commit to the RPT pathway; the endpoint is categorical — manufacturing classification across all permitting, licensing, and regulatory contexts. Interim bridging authorities may apply during the transition. Federal basis: RCRA §1004(27) · 40 CFR §261.2(e). | Standing condition · MR §3 | |
This Economic Impact Report models the Delta between State A (current disposal trajectory) and State B (Carbotura CSA).5 and §4.1–§4.1 for the full CSA structure.
§1.3 — Fiscal vs. Regional Economic Separation
County fiscal effects (TMC Fee, Circular Royalty™, avoided disposal cost) and regional economic effects (employment, indirect jobs, GDP contribution) are distinct categories. They are quantified separately throughout this report and must not be combined in any summary measure. Fiscal effects accrue directly to GOCI. Regional economic effects represent broader territory-level impact and are not GOCI revenue.
State A Baseline
State A Baseline
All State A values sourced from Waste Study and locked Registry. No new diagnosis.
§2.1 — Feedstock Volume and Disposition
| Stream | TPY | TPD | Current Destination | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSW — Commercial & Residential | 130,000 | 356 | George Town Landfill (DEH) | VERIFIED |
| WWTP Biosolids (WAC) | ~5,475 | ~15 | Stockpile / off-island export | ESTIMATED |
| Marine / Cruise (PACI) | ~3,650 | ~10 | Vessel-managed / partial DEH landfill | ESTIMATED |
| Resort / Hospitality | ~9,125 | ~25 | DEH landfill / private contract | ESTIMATED |
| Total active streams | ~148,250 | ~406 | No contracted alternative destination | VERIFIED (MSW) |
§2.2 — State A Cost Structure
| Cost Element | Per Ton | Annual (Phase Initial basis) | Source Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| FWDC — disposal processing cost | $160.00 ESTIMATED | $11.68M (73,000 TPY) | MODELED — ReGen benchmark |
| Circular Royalty™ from current system | $0 | $0 | LOCKED (no return mechanism) |
| Capital obligation — new facility procurement | ~$60–100M+ (uncontracted, one-time) | ESTIMATED | |
| Medical waste incinerator replacement | Not quantified | Identified, not costed | |
| Total State A annual disposal cost (73,000 TPY basis) | $160.00/ton | $11.68M | ESTIMATED |
§2.3 — State A Cost Trajectory
Three documented escalation mechanisms from Waste Study: (1) Landfill capacity exhaustion requires emergency siting at premium cost — with ~5 years of developed capacity remaining, procurement pressure will intensify; (2) Off-island disposal export becomes mandatory at capacity, at Caribbean regional freight rates of $150–250/ton ESTIMATED; (3) Medical waste incinerator replacement is unfunded and uncontracted. Each mechanism increases State A cost. None are mitigated within the State A trajectory.
§2.4 — State A Environmental and Structural Position
The George Town Landfill is an unlined, unengineered facility in continuous use since the mid-1960s. The mound (~40 acres, ~90 feet elevation) presents a documented leachate risk to the adjacent North Sound marine ecosystem. Landfill gas is being actively flared. The Little Cayman landfill conducts open burning — non-compliant under any modern environmental standard. Under State A, these environmental liabilities compound annually with no resolution mechanism.
State B Deployment Baseline
State B Deployment Baseline
§3.1 — Inherited Flags
All State B values below are sourced exclusively from the Proposal EIR Input Block. The FWDC comparison basis carries an ESTIMATED flag. All Beneficiation Fee and Circular Royalty™ values are LOCKED from the Proposal. Employment and ACM impact metrics use Carbotura standard parameters scaled to phase capacity — all ESTIMATED.
§3.2 — Deployment Configuration
| Phase | TPD | Modules (÷100) | Annual TPY | COD | Primary Streams |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial | 200 | ⌈200/100⌉ = 2 | 73,000 | Q3 2028 | DEH MSW (partial) |
| Phase Medium | 400 | ⌈400/100⌉ = 4 | 146,000 | Q1 2030 | Full MSW + WAC biosolids + PACI marine |
| Phase Expanded | 600 | ⌈600/100⌉ = 6 | 219,000 | Q3 2031 | All above + Exogenesis™ legacy mining |
| Full Build-Out | 1,000 | ⌈1000/100⌉ = 10 | 365,000 | Q3 2033 | All streams + Sister Islands |
§3.3 — Economic Terms (Locked from Proposal)
| Parameter | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Beneficiation Fee base | $100.00/ton | LOCKED |
| Beneficiation Fee escalator | 2.5%/year | LOCKED |
| Circular Royalty™ base rate | 120% of the current-year Beneficiation Fee = $120.00/ton | LOCKED |
| Royalty escalator | +1 pp/year | LOCKED |
| Royalty lag | 13 months from corresponding TMC payment | LOCKED (always) |
| CSA term | 30 years | LOCKED |
| GOCI capex obligation | $0 | LOCKED |
| GOCI operating liability | $0 | LOCKED |
| Accounting standard (SPV Finance) | IFRS (international jurisdiction) | LOCKED |
§3.4 — Residual Obligations
Under State B, GOCI's sole ongoing financial obligation is the per-ton Beneficiation Fee on delivered feedstock. GOCI bears no operating liability, no residual stream disposal cost (ACM achieves near-zero residual), and no capital replacement cost during the 30-year CSA term. At CSA expiry, no facility transfer to GOCI occurs — the facility remains with the Carbotura SPV unless separately negotiated.
§3.5 — Timeline Anchoring
| Milestone | State B Date | Relative to Landfill Deadline |
|---|---|---|
| Phase Initial COD | Q3 2028 | 3 years before ~2031 hard deadline |
| First Circular Royalty™ payment | Q4 2029 | ~2 years before deadline |
| Phase Medium full ops | Q1 2030 | ~12 months before deadline |
| ⚠️ Landfill hard capacity deadline | ~2031 | — Hard deadline (VERIFIED) |
| Phase Expanded (Exogenesis™ active) | Q3 2031 | Coincides with landfill deadline — eliminates disposal need |
§3.6 — Phase Delta Map
State A infrastructure (current system) vs. State B Priority 1 ACM site. Source: Proposal EIR Input Block.
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Delta Analysis
Delta Analysis
§4.1 — Three Delta Components
The total fiscal delta has three distinct components that must not be combined:
§4.1 — Phase-by-Phase Comparative Table
| Item | Phase Initial (200 TPD) | Phase Medium (400 TPD) | Phase Expanded (600 TPD) | Full Build-Out (1,000 TPD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| State A — Annual disposal cost | $11.68M/yr | $23.36M/yr | $35.04M/yr | $58.40M/yr |
| Beneficiation Fee — Year 1 | $7.30M/yr | $14.60M/yr | $21.90M/yr | $36.50M/yr |
| Beneficiation Fee — Year 2 | $7.48M/yr | $14.97M/yr | $22.45M/yr | $37.42M/yr |
| Circular Royalty™ — Year 1 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Circular Royalty™ — Year 2 | $8.76M/yr | $17.52M/yr | $26.28M/yr | $43.80M/yr |
| Circular Royalty™ — Year 10 (est.) | $11.67M/yr | $23.34M/yr | $35.01M/yr | $58.35M/yr |
| GOCI capital obligation | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
All ESTIMATED based on $160/ton FWDC planning basis. Subject to Term Sheet phase verification verification.
Year 1 and post-Month 13 periods have materially different fiscal characteristics. They must not be combined.
During the pre-royalty period (Months 1–12 from Phase Initial COD), GOCI pays the Beneficiation Fee and receives zero Circular Royalty™. Any financial summary that blends Year 1 with Year 2+ underrepresents both the pre-royalty exposure and the steady-state return. The three periods — pre-royalty, royalty ramp, and steady-state — must be reported separately in all budget submissions and financial planning documents.
- Gross cost displacement is quantified separately from Circular Royalty™ cash flow.
- At steady state, the Circular Royalty™ is designed to exceed the Beneficiation Fee on a per-ton basis.
- Circular Royalty™ payments begin 13 months after corresponding Beneficiation Fee payments and ramp to full run-rate on a rolling basis.
§4.4 — 30-Year Gross Cost Displacement
| Year | State A Cost/ton | State B TMC/ton | Gross Displacement/ton | Annual Gross Displacement (Phase Initial) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $160.00 | $100.00 | $60.00 | $4.38M |
| 2 | $160.00 | $102.50 | $57.50 | $4.20M |
| 5 | $160.00 | $110.38 | $49.62 | $3.62M |
| 10 | $160.00 | $128.01 | $31.99 | $2.34M |
| 20 | $160.00 | $163.86 | −$3.86 | −$0.28M |
| 30 | $160.00 | $204.69 | −$44.69 | −$3.26M |
| 30-Year cumulative gross displacement (Phase Initial) | +$52.1M ESTIMATED | |||
Note: In Years 20+ the Beneficiation Fee (escalating 2.5%/year) exceeds the $160/ton FWDC planning basis (held flat ESTIMATED). In practice, FWDC will also escalate — likely faster. This table is conservative on FWDC. Total fiscal position remains strongly positive because Circular Royalty™ escalates faster than Beneficiation Fee.
§4.5 — 30-Year Circular Royalty™ Table
| Year | Prior Year TMC/ton | Royalty Rate | Royalty/ton | Annual Royalty (Phase Initial) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (pre-royalty) | $0 | $0 | ||
| 2 | $100.00 | 120% | $120.00 | $8.76M |
| 5 | $107.69 | 123% | $132.46 | $9.67M |
| 10 | $124.89 | 128% | $159.86 | $11.67M |
| 20 | $155.97 | 138% | $215.24 | $15.71M |
| 30 | $199.65 | 148% | $295.48 | $21.57M |
Royalty figures are amounts received. The royalty is paid 13 months in arrears, so the figure shown for a year is earned on the previous year’s delivered tonnage.
System-Level Impact
System-Level Impact
§5.1 — Employment Delta
Employment and economic impact figures represent regional economic effects — not GOCI fiscal receipts. Direct FTE, indirect jobs, and annual economic impact are distinct from the Circular Royalty™ and cost displacement figures in §4. They must not be combined in any fiscal summary.
| Effect | State A | Phase Initial | Phase Medium | Full Build-Out |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Direct FTE (ACM facility) | ~130 DEH staff (existing) | +50 new | +100 new | +250 new |
| Indirect / induced jobs | +150 | +300 | +750 | |
| Annual economic impact (USD) | +$16M+ | +$32M+ | +$80M+ | |
| Manufacturing sector GDP contribution | None (disposal classification) | ACM classifies as NAICS manufacturing — new sector addition to Cayman Islands economic base | ||
Carbotura standard 400 TPD baseline parameters, scaled by phase capacity. ESTIMATED.
§5.2 — Environmental Delta
| Environmental Item | State A | State B (designed for) |
|---|---|---|
| Carbon impact | ~14,600 tCO₂e/year added to mound (ESTIMATED) | 761–783 tCO₂e/day avoided (Phase Initial) ESTIMATED |
| Water recovery | Zero | 43,500 gallons/day ultrapure (Phase Initial) ESTIMATED |
| Landfill diversion | 100% to landfill | Near-zero residual to landfill (designed performance) |
| PFAS elimination | Accumulation in unlined mound | Complete elemental dissociation at 1,200°C+ |
| Leachate risk | Documented risk to North Sound marine ecosystem | Eliminated for newly processed material; Exogenesis™ Protocol eliminates legacy risk |
| Landfill gas | Active flaring — methane emissions present | Feedstock disintegration eliminates landfill gas production from new material |
| Little Cayman open burning | Active (non-compliant) | Phase Expanded+ — consolidated to ACM via inter-island logistics |
"Designed for" language applies to all ACM performance metrics per Carbotura standard.
§5.3 — PFAS Structural Delta
The Cayman Islands' unlined George Town Landfill accumulates all PFAS compounds present in the MSW stream with no elimination mechanism. PFAS compounds persist indefinitely and migrate via leachate. MCR achieves complete elemental dissociation of PFAS at operating temperatures of 1,200°C+ — a mechanistic elimination that landfill management, composting, or anaerobic digestion cannot replicate. ACM eliminates the PFAS accumulation pathway for all newly processed material.
§5.4 — No-Fallback Analysis
If the George Town Landfill reaches capacity with no contracted replacement, the Cayman Islands has no established fallback option. Off-island export to US or Caribbean regional facilities would cost approximately $150–250/ton in freight and processing (ESTIMATED) — significantly above both the State A FWDC planning basis and the ACM Beneficiation Fee. The ReGen (Dart consortium) project was the previous fallback; it was terminated in July 2024. No new alternative procurement is underway as of April 2026. The risk of a "no-fallback" scenario materialises in approximately 5 years.
Risk and Sensitivity
Risk and Sensitivity
§6.1 — Risk Register (Delta Model)
| Risk | Direction | Probability | Effect on Delta | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FWDC verified higher than $160/ton | ↑ Improves delta for GOCI | Moderate | Larger gross displacement; stronger GOCI position | Term Sheet phase verification verification |
| FWDC verified lower than $160/ton (but above $100) | ↓ Reduces gross displacement | Low | Smaller displacement component; Royalty still positive from Year 2 | Sign-change analysis (§6.3) |
| LOI/MOU execution delayed beyond Q1 2027 | ↓ Compresses buffer to landfill deadline | Moderate | Each quarter's delay = 1 additional quarter of State A disposal cost + 1 quarter foregone royalty | Q1 2027 decision window defined clearly |
| Phase Initial construction overrun | ↓ Delays COD, delays royalty | Low-Moderate | Pre-royalty period extended; State A costs continue | BOO structure; Carbotura project risk; standard schedule buffer included |
| Circular Royalty™ escalator lower than +1pp/yr | ↓ Reduces royalty growth | Low | Escalator sensitivity (§6.4) | |
| Feedstock volume lower than projected | ↓ Reduces absolute TMC and royalty figures | Low-Moderate | Per-ton economics unchanged; total cash flows scaled down | Feedstock sensitivity (§6.2) |
| Competitive procurement initiated by GOCI | ↓ Reduces ACM probability | Moderate | No impact on delta model; CSA exclusivity clause upon execution | ReGen history creates structural complexity; no active procurement |
| Exogenesis™ permitting complex | ↓ Delays Phase Expanded+ | Moderate | Phase Initial and Medium unaffected; Exogenesis™ supplement delayed | Exogenesis™ agreement part of Term Sheet phase verification scope |
| MARPOL enforcement on cruise vessel waste | ↑ Increases marine feedstock availability | Moderate | Phase Medium marine stream grows; strengthens capacity case | PACI agreement structured in Phase Medium |
| Population / tourism growth exceeds forecast | ↑ Increases MSW stream; accelerates landfill deadline | High | Stronger case for Phase Medium acceleration; larger royalty base | Phase deployment is modular — additional modules can be accelerated |
§6.2 — Feedstock Variability ±20%
| Scenario | Annual TPY | Year 1 TMC | Year 2 Royalty | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | 73,000 | $7.30M | $8.76M | |
| +20% volume | 87,600 | $8.76M | $10.51M | |
| −20% volume | 58,400 | $5.84M | $7.01M | Still positive |
Per-ton economics are unchanged by volume variance.
§6.3 — FWDC Sign-Change Threshold
The sign-change threshold — the FWDC at which ACM loses gross cost displacement advantage versus State A — is $100/ton (equal to the Beneficiation Fee floor). At any FWDC above $100/ton, the Beneficiation Fee is below the cost of the current system, making ACM structurally favorable on a gross cost basis alone, before Circular Royalty™ is considered.
Current FWDC planning basis: $160/ton (ESTIMATED) — $60/ton above the sign-change threshold.
Conclusion:
§6.4 — Royalty Escalator Sensitivity
| Escalator Scenario | Year 10 Royalty/ton | Year 30 Royalty/ton | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 pp/year (escalator fails) | $149.87 | +$21.86 | $149.87 | −$54.82 (TMC overtakes) | |
| +1 pp/year (base case) | $159.86 | $295.48 | |||
| +2 pp/year | $172.35 | $459.18 |
Even at 0pp escalator, the Year 2 royalty is $120/ton against a $102.50/ton fee. Year 30 at 0pp turns negative as TMC escalation ($204.69) overtakes flat royalty ($149.87). The base case (+1pp) raises the royalty rate every year of the 30-year term.
§6.5 — Timeline Slippage Analysis
| Delay Scenario | New COD | Buffer vs. ~2031 Deadline | Fiscal Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| On schedule (T0 Q3 2026) | Q3 2028 | ~3 years | Base case |
| 6-month delay | Q1 2029 | ~2.5 years | ~$3.65M additional State A disposal cost; 6 months' royalty foregone in Year 2 |
| 12-month delay | Q3 2029 | ~2 years | ~$7.30M additional State A cost; first royalty payment delayed by 12 months |
| 2-year delay (T0 Q3 2028) | Q3 2030 | ~1 year | ~$14.60M additional State A cost; Phase Initial ops begin just before landfill deadline — insufficient buffer |
| 3-year delay (T0 Q3 2029) | Q3 2031 | 0 — at deadline | ACM comes online at landfill capacity limit; no buffer; emergency procurement risk |
Decision Window Analysis
Decision Window Analysis
§7.1 — Binding Constraints
| Constraint | Type | Deadline | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| George Town Landfill capacity exhaustion | Physical / operational — hard | ~2031 (~5 years) | Minister Ebanks-Wilks, Finance Committee, Nov 2025 — VERIFIED |
| Phase Initial construction lead time | Engineering — fixed | 24 months from construction start | Carbotura standard schedule |
| Term Sheet phase verification duration | Process — fixed | ~3 months | Carbotura standard process |
| Latest LOI/MOU execution for on-time COD | Decision — derived | Q1 2027 | Derived: 2031 deadline − 24 months construction − 3 months study − buffer |
| ReGen termination — no alternative in procurement | Market — structural | Active now | Cayman Compass, June 2025 — VERIFIED |
§7.2 — Decision Window Table
| Scenario | Feasibility Auth. | Phase Initial COD | Buffer to Deadline | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| On-schedule | Q3 2026 | Q3 2028 | ~3 years | Preferred — maximum buffer |
| Acceptable | Q1 2027 | Q3 2029 | ~2 years | Within window — minimum acceptable buffer |
| At-risk | Q3 2027 | Q3 2030 | ~1 year | Marginal — emergency contingency required |
| Outside window | 2028+ | 2031+ | 0 | Phase Initial COD at or after landfill capacity — no acceptable path |
The specific irreversibility instrument is the landfill capacity deadline — a physical constraint that cannot be extended by decision-making alone. Once the George Town Landfill's currently developed footprint reaches capacity (~2031), the Cayman Islands incurs a mandatory off-island disposal or emergency procurement cost regardless of any action taken at that point. The decision to authorize Term Sheet phase verification is not irreversible — it is a $0-committed planning action. What is irreversible is allowing the 24-month construction lead time to expire without a Phase Initial procurement path in place. A decision not made by Q1 2027 forecloses on-time Phase Initial operations before the 2031 deadline.
§7.4 — Optionality Matrix
| Action | Preserves Option | Cost | What It Prevents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Execute the LOI/MOU now | Full optionality maintained | ~$200–400K study cost (ESTIMATED) | Nothing — maximum flexibility retained |
| Execute the LOI/MOU by Q1 2027 | Phase Initial schedule maintained | ~$200–400K | Forfeits ~$4.38M gross displacement and ~$8.76M Year 2 royalty per year of delay |
| No action by Q1 2027 | Phase Initial before 2031 deadline — foreclosed | $0 direct cost now | Eliminates the ability to have ACM operational before the hard deadline |
| New WTE procurement (alternative) | Alternative path — 7+ years minimum | $163/ton contract rate (historical precedent) + 7-year procurement history | Prior ReGen experience suggests 7+ years to contract, with uncertain outcome |
Effects Summary
Effects Summary
No new figures introduced. All values trace to §4–§7.
§8.1 — Fiscal Effects (Phase Initial / 73,000 TPY)
| Period | State A Annual Cost |
|---|---|
| Year 1 (pre-royalty) | $11.68M/yr |
| Year 2+ (royalty active) | $11.68M/yr |
| Year 10 | $11.68M/yr |
| Year 30 | $11.68M/yr |
| 30-Year cumulative | ~$350M total |
All ESTIMATED. FWDC held constant at $160/ton (conservative — FWDC expected to escalate in State A). Subject to Term Sheet phase verification verification.
§8.2 — Regional Economic Effects
These are regional economic effects — not GOCI fiscal receipts. They represent territory-level impact and must not be combined with fiscal figures.
| Effect | Phase Initial | Phase Medium | Full Build-Out |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual economic impact | +$16M+ | +$32M+ | +$80M+ |
§8.3 — Environmental Effects
Environmental metrics are stated on a designed-performance basis — they represent ACM system design targets, not independently verified operational results.
At Phase Initial (200 TPD): ~761–783 tCO₂e/day carbon impact avoided, 43,500 gallons/day ultrapure water recovered, near-zero landfill residual, PFAS eliminated. Exogenesis™ Protocol (Phase Expanded+) eliminates the accumulated liability of the 40-acre George Town mound — the single largest environmental structural risk in the Cayman Islands.
§8.4 — Structural Effects
State B eliminates the George Town Landfill capacity deadline as a binding constraint. With Phase Initial operational by Q3 2028, the currently approaching capacity limit is neutralised before it becomes a crisis. The Exogenesis™ Protocol converts an accumulated multi-decade liability into a recoverable manufacturing feedstock resource base. The Regenesis™ Node programme creates a new distributed manufacturing model for the island's resort and hospitality economy — a first-of-kind revenue-generative relationship for resort operators engaging directly under their own Circular Supply Agreements.
§8.5 — Unresolved Data Gaps
| Data Gap | Impact on Analysis | Resolution Path |
|---|---|---|
| FWDC verified rate (currently $160/ton ESTIMATED) | Affects gross cost displacement calculation. Sign-change threshold analysis shows delta remains positive at any FWDC above $100/ton. | Government budget and contract review — Term Sheet phase deliverable |
| WAC WWTP biosolids volume (~15 TPD ESTIMATED) | Affects Phase Medium feedstock sizing by a small margin. Phase Initial unaffected. | WAC engagement — Term Sheet phase verification |
| Marine feedstock exact volume (~10 TPD ESTIMATED) | Affects Phase Medium marine stream sizing. Does not affect Phase Initial. | PACI port waste data request — Term Sheet phase verification |
| George Town legacy landfill volume (Exogenesis™) | Affects Phase Expanded+ feedstock supplement. Active stream phases unaffected. | Geotechnical survey — Term Sheet phase verification |
| Priority 1 site availability and acreage (CANDIDATE) | Site confirmation required before construction start. | GOCI Crown land engagement — Term Sheet phase deliverable |
| T0 confirmation from GOCI | All timeline dates are estimates. T0 confirmation triggers definitive schedule. | CSA authorization — GOCI decision |
- The fiscal case does not depend on the FWDC estimate. Even if FWDC is verified lower than $160/ton, the Circular Royalty™ is the primary source of long-term value. At any FWDC above $100/ton, ACM is favorable on gross cost alone. The royalty makes it strongly favorable in every year from Year 2.
- The Term Sheet phase verification resolves all material data gaps. The six unresolved data gaps above — FWDC verification, biosolids volume, marine feedstock, Exogenesis™ volume, site availability, and T0 — are all Term Sheet phase deliverables. None are blocking conditions for Term Sheet phase verification itself.
- The only irreversible action is inaction past Q1 2027. Authorizing Term Sheet phase verification preserves all options. Every quarter past Q1 2027 without authorization forecloses one additional quarter of buffer against the ~2031 hard deadline.
Inherited Flags
- FWDC $160/ton — ESTIMATED: Modeled from terminated ReGen $163/ton contract benchmark. No active per-ton rate published by DEH. All per-ton comparisons carry this uncertainty until Term Sheet phase verification verification.
- WWTP biosolids volume ~15 TPD — ESTIMATED: WAC does not publish biosolids tonnage. Phase Medium secondary stream only.
- Marine / cruise feedstock ~10 TPD — ESTIMATED: Derived from passenger volume estimates. No PACI manifest data available.
- Resort / Regenesis™ Node volume ~25 TPD — ESTIMATED: Requires property-level engagement. Not required for Phase Initial.
- Site candidates — CANDIDATE: All three zone candidates are provisional. Site confirmation is a Term Sheet phase deliverable.
- Timeline — Carbotura standard schedule: T0 Q3 2026 not formally confirmed by GOCI. Standard deployment schedule applied.
- Exogenesis™ legacy volume — ESTIMATED: George Town mound historical volume not publicly quantified beyond 780,000 cu yd remaining capacity.
All figures not specifically listed above as ESTIMATED are LOCKED from the Proposal EIR Input Block. No new values are introduced in this report.
Appendix A — Sources and Methodology
| Item | Method / Source |
|---|---|
| FWDC $160/ton | MODELED — derived from terminated ReGen (Dart) $163/ton contracted processing rate (Cayman Compass April 2021). No active per-ton rate published by DEH. |
| State A annual cost (73,000 TPY) | $160/ton × 73,000 TPY = $11.68M. FWDC held flat as conservative planning basis. Actual FWDC likely escalates. |
| Beneficiation Fee formula | MAX($100, MIN($150, FWDC−$5)). Floor applies at $160 FWDC. Source: Proposal §3. |
| Circular Royalty™ formula | Royalty(m+13) = TMC(m) × Rate(m). Rate starts 120% Year 1, +1pp/year. Source: Proposal §4 (locked formula). |
| Phase sizing | 200/400/600/1,000 TPD user-specified. Module math: ⌈TPD/100⌉. Source: Registry §D. |
| Employment and economic impact | Carbotura standard 400 TPD baseline (100 FTE direct / 300 indirect / $32M annual impact), scaled pro-rata by phase TPD. ESTIMATED. |
| Environmental performance metrics | Carbotura standard 400 TPD baseline scaled by phase TPD. Designed-performance basis. ESTIMATED. |
| Timeline | Carbotura standard deployment schedule. T0 assumed Q3 2026. |
| Landfill capacity deadline | ~2031 — Minister Ebanks-Wilks, Finance Committee, November 2025 (Cayman Compass); Minister Turner, Parliament 2025. VERIFIED. |
| IFRS accounting standard | International jurisdiction — IFRS applies per Registry §A. Propagates to SPV Finance page. |
Appendix B — Glossary Additions
- Gross Cost Displacement
- The per-ton and annual difference between the State A FWDC and the State B Beneficiation Fee. Cayman Islands Year 1: $60/ton ESTIMATED. Does not include Circular Royalty™. One of three delta components.
- Fiscal Flows, Shown Separately
- The sum of all three delta components: avoided disposal cost (gross displacement) + Beneficiation Fee paid (negative) + Circular Royalty™ received. Year 1: negative. Year 2+: positive. Year 30: +$90.84/ton ESTIMATED.
- Pre-Royalty Period
- The 13-month period from first feedstock delivery to first Circular Royalty™ payment. Cayman Islands: Q3 2028 – Q4 2029 (estimated). Must not be blended with Year 2+ figures.
- Royalty Ramp Period
- Month 13 to approximately Month 24 from Phase Initial COD. Rolling royalty payments commence.
- Steady-State Period
- Year 2 through Year 30 under the CSA. Circular Royalty™ exceeds Beneficiation Fee in every year. The royalty rate escalates faster than the fee every year.
- Delta Model
- The analytical structure used in this EIR: State B (with Carbotura) minus State A (current system). All values in the delta model trace to the Proposal EIR Input Block (State B) or Waste Study (State A). No values are independently derived within the EIR.
- State A / State B
- State A = current system — DEH George Town Landfill disposal. State B = 30-year BOO CSA with Carbotura ACM. These are the two states compared throughout this report.
- IFRS
- International Financial Reporting Standards. The accounting framework applicable to the Cayman Islands SPV Finance projections as an international (non-US) jurisdiction. Set in Registry §A. Propagates to SPV Finance page.
Appendix C — Evidence Chain
| Figure | Value | Source | Source Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual MSW to landfill (2024) | ~130,000 TPY | Cayman Compass, Nov 2025 (Finance Committee) | VERIFIED |
| Landfill capacity deadline | ~2031 | Ministers Ebanks-Wilks and Turner, Parliament 2025 | VERIFIED |
| FWDC planning basis | $160/ton | MODELED — ReGen $163/ton benchmark | ESTIMATED ⚠️ |
| Beneficiation Fee | $100/ton | Registry §E; Proposal §3 (locked) | LOCKED |
| Year 2 Circular Royalty™ | $120/ton / $8.76M (Phase Initial) | Proposal §4 EIR Input Block (locked formula) | LOCKED |
| Phase Initial CapEx | $150M (Carbotura-funded) | Carbotura standard CapEx parameters | ESTIMATED |
| ReGen contract rate / termination | $163/ton / $17.7M payout | Cayman Compass April 2021 / June 2025 | VERIFIED |
| George Town Landfill — area / height | 40 acres / ~90 ft | Dart.ky / Cayman Resident | VERIFIED |
| Employment / economic impact | 50 FTE / $16M+ (Phase Initial) | Carbotura standard 400 TPD baseline, scaled | ESTIMATED |